The U.S. labor market continues to show remarkably few signs of widespread layoffs. Initial jobless claims fell by 1,000 to 197,000 last week, marking the third consecutive week below 200,000 and the third-lowest reading of the year.
Why it matters: Hiring has clearly slowed, but employers aren’t responding by aggressively cutting workers. That continues to support the idea that the U.S. is in a “low-hire, low-fire” labor market.
- The broader trend looks strong as well. The four-week moving average, which helps smooth out weekly volatility, fell by 2,500 to 200,000—the third-lowest level of the year.
The bigger surprise: Continuing claims fell by 11,000 to 1.70 million during the week ending September 19, their lowest level in more than three years.
- Continuing claims track people who remain on unemployment benefits after their initial filing, making the decline another indication that unemployment rolls aren’t building.
- The numbers are particularly notable alongside other labor-market data. Job openings and quits have declined, pointing to less hiring and less worker confidence, but weekly claims continue to show little evidence that businesses are significantly increasing layoffs.
The bottom line: The labor market has cooled, but it hasn’t cracked. Employers aren’t hiring as aggressively and workers aren’t quitting as frequently, yet layoffs remain exceptionally low. For now, the U.S. remains firmly in a low-hire, low-fire environment—a sign of labor-market resilience that could keep pressure on the Fed to maintain tight monetary policy.