Markets are basically unchanged Thursday morning following a busy few days and what has been a pretty good week for interest rates, but investors still have several potentially important events ahead.
Why it matters: The focus is shifting toward the labor market and Federal Reserve policy. Initial jobless claims are expected to rise slightly to 210,000 this morning, but the bigger labor story comes Friday with the annual revision to nonfarm payrolls.
- The past two revisions have been substantial, with payroll totals revised lower by 818,000 in 2024 and 911,000 in 2025.
Jackson Hole: Meanwhile, the Kansas City Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium kicks off Thursday in Wyoming. The gathering has historically given Fed chairs an opportunity to provide forward guidance on monetary policy, but markets aren’t expecting new Chair Kevin Warsh to necessarily follow that tradition when he delivers his debut Jackson Hole address Friday.
The bottom line: It’s a quiet morning, but probably not a quiet end to the week. Between the annual jobs revision and Warsh’s first Jackson Hole speech as Fed chair, Friday could provide a much clearer picture of where rates are headed next.